This is what I’m seeing on the destination. It appears packets are making it there but not returning.
tcpdump | grep 10.4.168.3 | grep 10.5.21.12
tcpdump: verbose output suppressed, use -v[v]... for full protocol decode
listening on eth0, link-type EN10MB (Ethernet), snapshot length 262144 bytes
23:21:54.146799 IP 10.5.21.12.57040 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [.], seq 2619893649:2619893650, ack 318988070, win 1026, length 1
23:21:54.146867 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57040: Flags [.], ack 1, win 500, options [nop,nop,sack 1 {0:1}], length 0
23:22:04.232867 IP 10.5.21.12.57040 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [.], seq 0:1, ack 1, win 1026, length 1
23:22:04.232933 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57040: Flags [.], ack 1, win 500, options [nop,nop,sack 1 {0:1}], length 0
23:22:15.529639 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57096: Flags [.], seq 2377331330:2377332790, ack 1145747619, win 500, length 1460
23:22:15.529887 IP 10.4.68.1 > 10.4.168.3: ICMP 10.5.21.12 unreachable - need to frag (mtu 1420), length 556
23:22:15.529899 IP 10.4.68.1 > 10.4.168.3: ICMP 10.5.21.12 unreachable - need to frag (mtu 1420), length 556
23:22:27.979862 IP 10.5.21.12.57096 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [F.], seq 1, ack 0, win 1024, length 0
23:22:28.021529 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57096: Flags [.], ack 2, win 500, length 0
23:22:33.449561 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57096: Flags [.], seq 0:1460, ack 2, win 500, length 1460
23:22:33.449850 IP 10.4.68.1 > 10.4.168.3: ICMP 10.5.21.12 unreachable - need to frag (mtu 1420), length 556
23:22:33.449865 IP 10.4.68.1 > 10.4.168.3: ICMP 10.5.21.12 unreachable - need to frag (mtu 1420), length 556
23:22:34.474002 IP 10.5.21.12.57040 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [.], seq 0:1, ack 1, win 1026, length 1
23:22:34.474075 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57040: Flags [.], ack 1, win 500, options [nop,nop,sack 1 {0:1}], length 0
23:22:38.102156 IP 10.5.21.12.57096 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [.], seq 1:2, ack 0, win 1024, length 1
23:22:38.102220 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57096: Flags [.], ack 2, win 500, options [nop,nop,sack 1 {1:2}], length 0
23:22:44.548025 IP 10.5.21.12.57040 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [.], seq 0:1, ack 1, win 1026, length 1
23:22:44.548083 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57040: Flags [.], ack 1, win 500, options [nop,nop,sack 1 {0:1}], length 0
23:22:48.179079 IP 10.5.21.12.57096 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [.], seq 1:2, ack 0, win 1024, length 1
23:22:48.179151 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57096: Flags [.], ack 2, win 500, options [nop,nop,sack 1 {1:2}], length 0
23:22:54.635827 IP 10.5.21.12.57040 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [.], seq 0:1, ack 1, win 1026, length 1
23:22:54.635883 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57040: Flags [.], ack 1, win 500, options [nop,nop,sack 1 {0:1}], length 0
23:22:58.258992 IP 10.5.21.12.57096 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [.], seq 1:2, ack 0, win 1024, length 1
23:22:58.259052 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57096: Flags [.], ack 2, win 500, options [nop,nop,sack 1 {1:2}], length 0
23:23:04.710001 IP 10.5.21.12.57040 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [.], seq 0:1, ack 1, win 1026, length 1
23:23:04.710081 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57040: Flags [.], ack 1, win 500, options [nop,nop,sack 1 {0:1}], length 0
23:23:08.336063 IP 10.5.21.12.57096 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [.], seq 1:2, ack 0, win 1024, length 1
23:23:08.336148 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57096: Flags [.], ack 2, win 500, options [nop,nop,sack 1 {1:2}], length 0
23:23:10.313642 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57096: Flags [.], seq 0:1460, ack 2, win 500, length 1460
23:23:10.313930 IP 10.4.68.1 > 10.4.168.3: ICMP 10.5.21.12 unreachable - need to frag (mtu 1420), length 556
23:23:10.313944 IP 10.4.68.1 > 10.4.168.3: ICMP 10.5.21.12 unreachable - need to frag (mtu 1420), length 556
23:23:14.791025 IP 10.5.21.12.57040 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [.], seq 0:1, ack 1, win 1026, length 1
23:23:14.791111 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57040: Flags [.], ack 1, win 500, options [nop,nop,sack 1 {0:1}], length 0
23:23:18.412697 IP 10.5.21.12.57096 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [.], seq 1:2, ack 0, win 1024, length 1
23:23:18.412787 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57096: Flags [.], ack 2, win 500, options [nop,nop,sack 1 {1:2}], length 0
23:23:23.967752 IP 10.5.21.12.57040 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [R.], seq 1, ack 1, win 0, length 0
23:23:28.496303 IP 10.5.21.12.57096 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [.], seq 1:2, ack 0, win 1024, length 1
23:23:28.496366 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57096: Flags [.], ack 2, win 500, options [nop,nop,sack 1 {1:2}], length 0
23:23:38.580968 IP 10.5.21.12.57096 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [.], seq 1:2, ack 0, win 1024, length 1
23:23:38.581018 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57096: Flags [.], ack 2, win 500, options [nop,nop,sack 1 {1:2}], length 0
23:23:48.660776 IP 10.5.21.12.57096 > 10.4.168.3.443: Flags [.], seq 1:2, ack 0, win 1024, length 1
23:23:48.660841 IP 10.4.168.3.443 > 10.5.21.12.57096: Flags [.], ack 2, win 500, options [nop,nop,sack 1 {1:2}], length 0